UFOs are here.. get your tin hats on folks.

pogul · May 2021

Do aliens prefer valves or solid state?

chillidoggy · May 2021

They never got that far. They saw a Bigsby, and decided we’re all doomed.

Haych · May 2021

Paul Gilbert is bound to know, I'm sure he's one of them.

PolarityMan · May 2021

I found out today that nuclear pasta is a thing.

thing · May 2021

Shrews said:

Springywheel said:

I think the chances of there being life in the universe is extremely likely, but in terms of actual so called 'intelligent' lifeforms that are able to exercise their own will in a more deliberate manner (beyond that of a simple 'autonomous' lifeform), contemplate their own existence, form abstract thoughts, create civilisations, play God etc., I think that's a lot rarer....

Maybe, but equally we could say that the universe is 13.8 billion years old and the earth only 4.5 billion years old with intelligent life only starting to form here 2 million years ago.

What if there was a planet, circling a sun like ours, that was 8.5 billion years old and had a 4 billion years headstart on us?

This is the thing. Stars have a finite life. If it was a star like ours it would be turning into a red giant by now and the Earth, or Earthalike planet you conjecture would be fucked basically. As ours will be in 4 or so billion years.

ICBM · May 2021

thing said:

This is the thing. Stars have a finite life. If it was a star like ours it would be turning into a red giant by now and the Earth, or Earthalike planet you conjecture would be fucked basically. As ours will be in 4 or so billion years.

That depends on the mass of the star. A smaller, dimmer star burns much more slowly and can live for far longer - many times longer.

However, there's another limiting factor which is that the heavier elements necessary for building complex lifeforms are synthesised in massive stars and returned to the galactic gas clouds via supernova explosions, then eventually forming new stars. This process must be repeated many times before a suitable mixture of those elements is going to be present in the gas cloud that condenses to form a solar system capable of producing rocky planets and life.

So there is a certain minimum time from the beginning of the universe before which complex life is impossible because the concentration of heavy elements hasn't occurred yet. Since the Earth is actually about a third as old as the universe itself, it wouldn't actually surprise me if it's one of the first generation where it could even happen. Much older planets may exist, but they won't be able to support life. Of course, unless the Earth really is one of the very first to be able to, there could be another planet with maybe a billion year headstart on us...

And if there are Earth-like planets around smaller, dimmer stars than the Sun their greater life expectancy is in the future, not the past.

thing · May 2021

ICBM said:

thing said:

This is the thing. Stars have a finite life. If it was a star like ours it would be turning into a red giant by now and the Earth, or Earthalike planet you conjecture would be fucked basically. As ours will be in 4 or so billion years.

That depends on the mass of the star. A smaller, dimmer star burns much more slowly and can live for far longer - many times longer.

However, there's another limiting factor which is that the heavier elements necessary for building complex lifeforms are synthesised in massive stars and returned to the galactic gas clouds via supernova explosions, then eventually forming new stars. This process must be repeated many times before a suitable mixture of those elements is going to be present in the gas cloud that condenses to form a solar system capable of producing rocky planets and life.

So there is a certain minimum time from the beginning of the universe before which complex life is impossible because the concentration of heavy elements hasn't occurred yet. Since the Earth is actually about a third as old as the universe itself, it wouldn't actually surprise me if it's one of the first generation where it could even happen. Much older planets may exist, but they won't be able to support life. Of course, unless the Earth really is one of the very first to be able to, there could be another planet with maybe a billion year headstart on us...

And if there are Earth-like planets around smaller, dimmer stars than the Sun their greater life expectancy is in the future, not the past.

The OP postulated a star like ours, hence a type G main sequence. Life span approx 8 billion before it starts to expand and around 10 before it burns out and does it's white dwarf finale.

On current knowledge obviously. All subject to change.

Shrews · May 2021

But the basics are that, given our rapid state of progression over the last 200 years as an intelligent species, then older planets than ours would have a headstart, and therefore it's feasible that life much more intelligent than ours exists somewhere in the universe.

They would've worked out how to stop killing themselves. How to travel to the stars and master light speed. How to escape their dying planet, with their dying suns, and how to colonise other worlds, to obtain the resources they need to exist.

'They' might actually be the AI created by the former organic intelligent species and therefore any invaders of our good earth, are the robots created by the original species who no longer exist. They don't need to copulate but perhaps do need some sort of resource to keep themselves lubricated, like the Tin Man in Wizard of Oz.

Hide that WD40, that's what they're after. 100 super intelligent Tin Men could wipe out 7 billion humans easily.

As long as they've got that WD40.

equalsql · August 2021

Folks the aviation industry are starting to take the subject seriously..
https://thedebrief.org/worlds-largest-association-of-aerospace-and-aeronautical-engineers-joins-call-for-scientific-inquiry-of-ufos/

GordonBennett · September 2021

equalsql said:

Given that currently there are thought to be about 200 billion galaxies in the known universe each with roughly 100 billion stars the chances of there NOT being intelligent out there is arguably zero.

It always confounds me when people make such a statement. I understand the number of galaxies, starts, planets is incredibly large, but without knowing the probability of life occurring in the first place you can't ever know the the chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe.

octatonic · September 2021

equalsql said:

Given that currently there are thought to be about 200 billion galaxies in the known universe each with roughly 100 billion stars the chances of there NOT being intelligent out there is arguably zero. But.. whether they're in our neck of the woods?

Perhaps they have already lived, and made themselves extinct?
Or will simply exist after the human race is gone, and it almost certainly will go.

Shrews · September 2021

I think as long as we can keep ourselves from not going extinct for 500 years then we have a good chance of surviving as a species for thousands, if not millions of years to come.

Work out how to travel at light speed and how to colonise other worlds.

We've basically just got to get on with it and get the hell off this planet. Maybe in a few thousand years there will be less than a million humans on plane Earth and 100 billion scattered across the Milky Way galaxy.

Probably still needing a pcr test and Holiday Inn quarantine if they want to visit the 'old world'.

Mellish · September 2021

May I chip in? The number of galaxies/stars mentioned is correct. However, odds being in favour of extraterrestrial life doesn't prove it exists. And although my money would be on that it does, does it mostly end up extinct due to global epidemic, war, asteroid/comet strike? We have our own issues and the Yellowstone Supervolcano may serve as an example. If it super erupts (and one day it will) it's game over.

DefaultM · September 2021

I can't see humans lasting another 500 years. It's only been about 200 years since we started wrecking stuff, and we seem pretty set on this efficiency carrying on.

ICBM · September 2021

GordonBennett said:

equalsql said:

Given that currently there are thought to be about 200 billion galaxies in the known universe each with roughly 100 billion stars the chances of there NOT being intelligent out there is arguably zero.

It always confounds me when people make such a statement. I understand the number of galaxies, starts, planets is incredibly large, but without knowing the probability of life occurring in the first place you can't ever know the the chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe.

This.

Basic life is almost certainly everywhere. Complex life is most likely extremely rare indeed, and we may be unique.

The proof of this is that as far as we can demonstrate at the moment, all complex life on Earth is descended from one single common ancestor - ie on a planet perfectly suited to it, and at the time probably swimming in basic life, the step to complex life only occurred *once*, in billions of years.

Also, the Universe is young - only about three times the age of the Earth itself, and there is a lower limit to when complex life can develop governed by the availability of heavier elements, which can only be created by the deaths of massive stars - and that cycle has to repeat many times before the concentration of those elements in the resulting clouds of gas becomes sufficient to form rocky planets. Even given that the life cycle of massive stars is many times faster than that of our own Sun, it would not at all surprise me if complex life could not realistically occur much earlier - in other words, we may well be the first, even if in the long run we may not be the only.

So we'd do well to take better care of our planet, really.

VimFuego · September 2021

DefaultM said:

I can't see humans lasting another 500 years. It's only been about 200 years since we started wrecking stuff, and we seem pretty set on this efficiency carrying on.

I can't take all the credit, but thanks anyways. It's always nice to have ones efforts recognised.

VimFuego · September 2021

ICBM said:

GordonBennett said:

equalsql said:

Given that currently there are thought to be about 200 billion galaxies in the known universe each with roughly 100 billion stars the chances of there NOT being intelligent out there is arguably zero.

It always confounds me when people make such a statement. I understand the number of galaxies, starts, planets is incredibly large, but without knowing the probability of life occurring in the first place you can't ever know the the chance of life existing elsewhere in the universe.

This.

Basic life is almost certainly everywhere. Complex life is most likely extremely rare indeed, and we may be unique.

The proof of this is that as far as we can demonstrate at the moment, all complex life on Earth is descended from one single common ancestor - ie on a planet perfectly suited to it, and at the time probably swimming in basic life, the step to complex life only occurred *once*, in billions of years.

Also, the Universe is young - only about three times the age of the Earth itself, and there is a lower limit to when complex life can develop governed by the availability of heavier elements, which can only be created by the deaths of massive stars - and that cycle has to repeat many times before the concentration of those elements in the resulting clouds of gas becomes sufficient to form rocky planets. Even given that the life cycle of massive stars is many times faster than that of our own Sun, it would not at all surprise me if complex life could not realistically occur much earlier - in other words, we may well be the first, even if in the long run we may not be the only.

So we'd do well to take better care of our planet, really.

it's a common trope in sci-fi about how later space faring civilisations discover great works of ancient progenitor species (think star trek etc), it never occurred to me that we could be it. It's kinda of amusing that, in our current form anyways, the great work we will leave behind will be something like a huge great steaming turd. With a big ol' fuck you sign stuck in it.

Emp_Fab · September 2021

Does anyone subscribe to the idea that we might be originally from Mars? Or that Mars had a civilisation millions of years before us? Not that long ago they were dismissing the notion that Mars ever had water - now it's accepted there were oceans.

Haych · September 2021

Emp_Fab said:

Does anyone subscribe to the idea that we might be originally from Mars? Or that Mars had a civilisation millions of years before us?

No!

VimFuego · September 2021

Emp_Fab said:

Does anyone subscribe to the idea that we might be originally from Mars? Or that Mars had a civilisation millions of years before us? Not that long ago they were dismissing the notion that Mars ever had water - now it's accepted there were oceans.

fing is, we can trace a fossil record all the way back to, well, almost biblical times. We clearly evolved from species that evolved on this planet, ergo we clearly evolved on this planet (though a quick visit to any highstreet on a Saturday night might challenge the idea that we are an evolved species).
We currently have no evidence of any advanced life on Mars, extinct or otherwise.

WiresDreamDisasters · September 2021

ICBM said:

Shrews said:

It would be pretty awesome though if Antarctica did reveal some hidden secrets from our ancient past or life was discovered on Mars, even if only a fossil and no more than a single cell.

Finding any kind of cellular life on Mars would be absolutely game-changing even if it was primitive or fossil - proving that it can arise independently in more than one place. If so, there is certainly complex life elsewhere.

What do you mean by 'independently' ????

ICBM · September 2021

WiresDreamDisasters said:

What do you mean by 'independently' ????

Mars became extremely arid and incapable of supporting active complex life billions of years ago, long before it arose on Earth. If there was ever complex life on Mars, it can't have been the progenitor of complex life on Earth since it couldn't have survived the only feasible means of transport - being carried here on meteorites blasted from the surface of Mars by impacts - since only extremely basic, primitive life could do - it would have had to spend a similar amount of time in space before it got here and would have to be some dormant form.

Hence any complex life in both places must have arisen independently, proving that step is less difficult than it appears from the evidence on Earth alone. If it's happened twice in one solar system, it's a certainty that it will have happened elsewhere, given the size of the Universe. So finding any kind of complex life on Mars - even fossil - would be the most significant event in the history of human science since it would mean that we are not alone.

viz · September 2021

Shrews said:

I think as long as we can keep ourselves from not going extinct for 500 years then we have a good chance of surviving as a species for thousands, if not millions of years to come.

Work out how to travel at light speed and how to colonise other worlds.

We've basically just got to get on with it and get the hell off this planet. Maybe in a few thousand years there will be less than a million humans on plane Earth and 100 billion scattered across the Milky Way galaxy.

Probably still needing a pcr test and Holiday Inn quarantine if they want to visit the 'old world'.

That is a fantastic plot for a film

Kittyfrisk · September 2021

^ "needing a pcr test and Holiday Inn quarantine if they want to visit the 'old world'.
That is a fantastic plot for a film.

Naah, totally unbelievable

LastMantra · September 2021

They might be total dicks.

Shrews · September 2021

VimFuego said:

Emp_Fab said:

Does anyone subscribe to the idea that we might be originally from Mars? Or that Mars had a civilisation millions of years before us? Not that long ago they were dismissing the notion that Mars ever had water - now it's accepted there were oceans.

fing is, we can trace a fossil record all the way back to, well, almost biblical times. We clearly evolved from species that evolved on this planet, ergo we clearly evolved on this planet (though a quick visit to any highstreet on a Saturday night might challenge the idea that we are an evolved species).
We currently have no evidence of any advanced life on Mars, extinct or otherwise.

Would we be told?

We could have a lot of evidence but how would this be shared with the human race?

How would the different religions react? Or indeed the people following them?

Personally, I doubt whether this would be shared. There would years of monitoring and data collection first. It would need proof beyond proof to get some humans to believe and what benefit would it be for the Americans (assuming Mars River gets it)?

It would be the dawn of a new age I think. Perhaps so excited that we are not alone that the search for life elsewhere is cranked up. Or perhaps we become frightened and full of paranoia and decide to stop looking altogether, become insular to not attract attention to ourselves.

It really would be human kinds greatest announcement and one that would change us forever.

darthed1981 · September 2021

The cool thing is that every possibility is still credible, because nothing has been seriously evidenced either way, except of course the paradox that given the universe should, mathematically, have the potential to be teeming with life, where is it all?

The current popular theory is the one that Brian Cox concludes all his documentaries with, already postulated up thread, that while basic life is common if not universal, life as complex as humans is rare, and we might be the only ones, or the only ones in our galaxy (as good as the same thing, given the distances).

Of course, the possibility also exists that the galaxy is full of civilisations, but they follow a Star Trek style "prime directive" and leave us alone until we develop technology for interstellar travel. This would explain UFOs of course, just checking in.

The possibility also exists that the conspiracy nuts (or, ya know, the X-Files, Stargate SG-1...) are right and we have known about alien life for decades, but it's been decided to keep quiet about it. This would explain UFOs of course.

It also could all be Q fucking with us...

VimFuego · September 2021

Shrews said:

VimFuego said:

Emp_Fab said:

Does anyone subscribe to the idea that we might be originally from Mars? Or that Mars had a civilisation millions of years before us? Not that long ago they were dismissing the notion that Mars ever had water - now it's accepted there were oceans.

fing is, we can trace a fossil record all the way back to, well, almost biblical times. We clearly evolved from species that evolved on this planet, ergo we clearly evolved on this planet (though a quick visit to any highstreet on a Saturday night might challenge the idea that we are an evolved species).
We currently have no evidence of any advanced life on Mars, extinct or otherwise.

Would we be told?

We could have a lot of evidence but how would this be shared with the human race?

How would the different religions react? Or indeed the people following them?

Personally, I doubt whether this would be shared. There would years of monitoring and data collection first. It would need proof beyond proof to get some humans to believe and what benefit would it be for the Americans (assuming Mars River gets it)?

It would be the dawn of a new age I think. Perhaps so excited that we are not alone that the search for life elsewhere is cranked up. Or perhaps we become frightened and full of paranoia and decide to stop looking altogether, become insular to not attract attention to ourselves.

It really would be human kinds greatest announcement and one that would change us forever.

how many people are involved in the various programs on Mars, all them mars rovers and shit? Hundreds? Mebbe thousands? How would you keep all of them silent? Not one "whistle blower" has come forward (not even the cliched conspiracy nut who's cousin, wife's best friend, dog etc works at the highest level in big space and has said...) so no, I don't believe for one moment we have discovered evidence of life on Mars.

VimFuego · September 2021

darthed1981 said:

The cool thing is that every possibility is still credible, because nothing has been seriously evidenced either way, except of course the paradox that given the universe should, mathematically, have the potential to be teeming with life, where is it all?

The current popular theory is the one that Brian Cox concludes all his documentaries with, already postulated up thread, that while basic life is common if not universal, life as complex as humans is rare, and we might be the only ones, or the only ones in our galaxy (as good as the same thing, given the distances).

Of course, the possibility also exists that the galaxy is full of civilisations, but they follow a Star Trek style "prime directive" and leave us alone until we develop technology for interstellar travel. This would explain UFOs of course, just checking in.

The possibility also exists that the conspiracy nuts (or, ya know, the X-Files, Stargate SG-1...) are right and we have known about alien life for decades, but it's been decided to keep quiet about it. This would explain UFOs of course.

It also could all be Q fucking with us...

if I was a Q type species, I would deffo fuck with the simple life forms. No point being all powerful if you can't mess up some mortals.

Fretwired · September 2021

equalsql said:

So aliens have the tech to travel vast distances and yet they can't cloak their ships so that primitive humans can't see or detect them. Unlikely I'd say.

Reality - Lockheed's Skunk Works designs some advanced drones and decides to pit them against the US Navy and airforce without telling anybody. More likely in my opinion.

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UFOs are here.. get your tin hats on folks.

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