Query failed: connection to localhost:9312 failed (errno=111, msg=Connection refused).
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Subscribe to our Patreon, and get image uploads with no ads on the site!
Base theme by DesignModo & ported to Powered by Vanilla by Chris Ireland, modified by the "theFB" team.
Comments
I wouldn't be moving GBP to USD at the moment - it's very likely the USD will drop further against GBP In the next few months because it's swung too far. We've been piling into GBP over the last few weeks (thanks Liz...) and are now looking at investing in USD again now GBP is stabilising and the markets are going up a bit after the midterms.
But soon everyone is going to announce recessions and all bets are off. Bonds could be a good call at that point, but only if you get into them early enough.
As always, things are never completely straight forward. Look at this year, even through we're in a bear market, and the prices of many funds are down in price to some degree compared with the last high point (end of last December/early January), a few are in positive territory like my American fund due to the 20% increase in the Dollar against Sterling.
Also, how do you view the value of receiving dividends? I did check earlier this week. Interestingly, although the capital value of my ISA portfolio is down a little at present, the dividend income is up 20% compared with the last calendar year. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I've recently invested this year's accumulated dividend cash into increasing 3 of my holdings -- two after they'd dropped in price for no obvious reason ( both subsequently gone back up again), and in my American fund, which is actually up in value this year. I hope to benefit in the future from the compounding effect of reinvesting dividend income in terms of both in capital and in income growth.
Dividends can "feel" safer in downturns as you get a regular income even as the capital value decreases but as you have suggested dividend funds don't have the same level of growth in the upswings.
I've been pondering the fx variances today and saw some data that suggested there is no advantage to hedging vs non hedging to your local currency over the long term. Some times the fx moves in your favour and you feel the benefit of the lower value home currency, as in UK domiciled US funds this year, the drop in a UK S&P500 fund (or may be into a small gain as we speak) vs the US index is favourable, but in other times the weakening dollar can work against you and you may wish you were hedged.
I have come to the conclusion that it's best to decide to hedge or not hedge and stick with it for the long term. I am non-hedged and will stay that way and take any strengthening of the pound on the chin in the short term.
@ToneControl isn't a fan of this chap but I think he makes some good data driven points
His argument against the idea that good dividend companies must be good companies to invest in is quite correct (I certainly go along with the Warren Buffet opinion he references), and I have no interest in pursuing high dividend returns. However, he does not argue that you should avoid dividends entirely, and he does not talk about the reinvestment of dividend income, which I would hope you agree can be one of the factors that significantly increases the capital value of a portfolio in the long term.
In your dilemma, isn't an auto accumulation fund vs a manual reinvestment of dividends from an income fund going to have pretty much the same result or as near as damn it in tax free environment? What would be the remaining variables once taxes are removed? Timing of the re-investment and internal costs within the fund? I'm not sure I understand the real difference.
My wife's SIPP holds VUSA ETF which is income only so the dividends have to be manually invested each quarter but need to be rounded down to the ETF unit price and any balance left as cash until next time, so not as efficient as an acc fund.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/12/27/tesla-stock-crash-worsens-losses-top-895-billion-as-rival-carmaker-warns-of-challenging-weeks-ahead/
Hindsight and magic crystal balls are a wonderful thing.
Never mind the stock price yesterday or today, I'm more interested in what the long term future for Tesla is, what do the company financials and projections look like?
Do you reckon they will be still around in 10-15 years or will they become the Blackberry of the EV world?
Will we actually have the conviction to carry on transitioning from ICE cars or will we row back as we have with the use of coal to produce electricity?
the stock price was way in excess of any likely future profits
that doesn't mean that it was too late to get a bit of ponzi-scheme tulip-bulb action and make a profit
As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.
REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.
Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?
I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours
On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued
I have to disagree with this based off of my own portfolio, granted I'm not a ''activist investor'' nor an ''ethical investor'', so I have invested in a lot of sins, and I pick stocks, I've taken a punt on a index fund, purely to get real world numbers for comparing Lego to an index fund, and gold, and as I mention above, my portfolio - without the index fund, is up close to 15%, that's inflation beating.
https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/
I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days
I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?
it's been out for a year or so now
https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/hydrogen
basically can handle longer and harder usage cycles than EV
And that is with the phone in my jeans pocket with some body heat transfer. So I imagine a EV with say 300 miles range to have maximum 50% of that in the depth of winter when it's below 0c.
That is just not going to work since the behaviour of the battery too would be out of character, it hits a wall and plummets, rather than it's normal (close to) linear curve in use so you might find youself in trouble all of the sudden thinking you have like 50% left when it would stops working.
Hydrogen is what I'm betting on - I believe there's a long haul test flight using hydrogen happening very soon, if not lpg, which is already in use and current ICE can be converted to very easily. I believe the king has a hydrogen powered car, he was promoting a company that's doing R&D and building them, not so long before the queen's death, can't remember the company's name, but it's British, and the car he was filmed in front of and taking for a spin was a dark blue colour.
Bandcamp
Where hydrogen is likely to be really good is in shipping (in the form of ammonia) and aviation (by via man-made hydrocarbons).
And as for heaters on batteries, some Teslas have them..!
My humble EV has a battery warming system for (very) cold weather (still not been needed) and has a range of about 160 miles in the cold vs 200 miles in Summer.
TLDR - on average, Winter range (Norwegian conditions) is 82% of Summer range. Can be as high as 90% or as low as 70%.