Sell Tesla?

stickyfiddle · November 2022

RandallFlagg said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on currency risk when holding foreign stocks?

Having international stock funds can expose a portfolio to fx variations, which can be good or bad depending on the prevailing winds. It has been favorable to hold US stocks from the last decade as the pound has dropped in value against the dollar, but that's not always been the case.

Internet wisdom appears to recommend against currency hedging equity/stock investments. Even if you hold a global index tracker you are typically only 4% UK so 96% exposed to fx variations. I have access to a hedged and non-hedged global index, but don't hold either currently.

So, should you overweight in UK stocks? forget about it? or balance an overseas equity portfolio with UK based bonds/gilts?

We're earning in USD (AED is pegged, so effectively equivalent) and plan to eventually return to the UK, so we hold a mix of USD and GBP funds, mostly internationally focussed, but with a couple that lean towards Asian markets, particularly in tech & renewables. That is an attempt to give some international flavour

I wouldn't be moving GBP to USD at the moment - it's very likely the USD will drop further against GBP In the next few months because it's swung too far. We've been piling into GBP over the last few weeks (thanks Liz...) and are now looking at investing in USD again now GBP is stabilising and the markets are going up a bit after the midterms.

But soon everyone is going to announce recessions and all bets are off. Bonds could be a good call at that point, but only if you get into them early enough.

ArchtopDave · November 2022

RandallFlagg said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on currency risk when holding foreign stocks?

Having international stock funds can expose a portfolio to fx variations, which can be good or bad depending on the prevailing winds. It has been favorable to hold US stocks from the last decade as the pound has dropped in value against the dollar, but that's not always been the case.

Internet wisdom appears to recommend against currency hedging equity/stock investments. Even if you hold a global index tracker you are typically only 4% UK so 96% exposed to fx variations. I have access to a hedged and non-hedged global index, but don't hold either currently.

So, should you overweight in UK stocks? forget about it? or balance an overseas equity portfolio with UK based bonds/gilts?

I've always lived in the UK, so, from this perspective, I make the following observations from my own investing experience. In terms of straight capital growth, my Global funds have produced growth several times that of my UK funds. On the other hand, dividend return from my UK funds is double that of my Global funds. At present, I cannot give you any idea of what would be the total return over several years for combined capital plus dividend return, though I could do so probably if I dug out all my paperwork.

As always, things are never completely straight forward. Look at this year, even through we're in a bear market, and the prices of many funds are down in price to some degree compared with the last high point (end of last December/early January), a few are in positive territory like my American fund due to the 20% increase in the Dollar against Sterling.

Also, how do you view the value of receiving dividends? I did check earlier this week. Interestingly, although the capital value of my ISA portfolio is down a little at present, the dividend income is up 20% compared with the last calendar year. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I've recently invested this year's accumulated dividend cash into increasing 3 of my holdings -- two after they'd dropped in price for no obvious reason ( both subsequently gone back up again), and in my American fund, which is actually up in value this year. I hope to benefit in the future from the compounding effect of reinvesting dividend income in terms of both in capital and in income growth.

RandallFlagg · November 2022

ArchtopDave said:

RandallFlagg said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on currency risk when holding foreign stocks?

Having international stock funds can expose a portfolio to fx variations, which can be good or bad depending on the prevailing winds. It has been favorable to hold US stocks from the last decade as the pound has dropped in value against the dollar, but that's not always been the case.

Internet wisdom appears to recommend against currency hedging equity/stock investments. Even if you hold a global index tracker you are typically only 4% UK so 96% exposed to fx variations. I have access to a hedged and non-hedged global index, but don't hold either currently.

So, should you overweight in UK stocks? forget about it? or balance an overseas equity portfolio with UK based bonds/gilts?

I've always lived in the UK, so, from this perspective, I make the following observations from my own investing experience. In terms of straight capital growth, my Global funds have produced growth several times that of my UK funds. On the other hand, dividend return from my UK funds is double that of my Global funds. At present, I cannot give you any idea of what would be the total return over several years for combined capital plus dividend return, though I could do so probably if I dug out all my paperwork.

As always, things are never completely straight forward. Look at this year, even through we're in a bear market, and the prices of many funds are down in price to some degree compared with the last high point (end of last December/early January), a few are in positive territory like my American fund due to the 20% increase in the Dollar against Sterling.

Also, how do you view the value of receiving dividends? I did check earlier this week. Interestingly, although the capital value of my ISA portfolio is down a little at present, the dividend income is up 20% compared with the last calendar year. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I've recently invested this year's accumulated dividend cash into increasing 3 of my holdings -- two after they'd dropped in price for no obvious reason ( both subsequently gone back up again), and in my American fund, which is actually up in value this year. I hope to benefit in the future from the compounding effect of reinvesting dividend income in terms of both in capital and in income growth.

I am in the "dividends are irrelevant" camp. Stocks that pay a dividend sacrifice capital growth by returning earnings to shareholders as cash. I prefer capital growth accumulation funds certainly over those that specifically restrict themselves to targeting high dividend yields.

Dividends can "feel" safer in downturns as you get a regular income even as the capital value decreases but as you have suggested dividend funds don't have the same level of growth in the upswings.

I've been pondering the fx variances today and saw some data that suggested there is no advantage to hedging vs non hedging to your local currency over the long term. Some times the fx moves in your favour and you feel the benefit of the lower value home currency, as in UK domiciled US funds this year, the drop in a UK S&P500 fund (or may be into a small gain as we speak) vs the US index is favourable, but in other times the weakening dollar can work against you and you may wish you were hedged.

I have come to the conclusion that it's best to decide to hedge or not hedge and stick with it for the long term. I am non-hedged and will stay that way and take any strengthening of the pound on the chin in the short term.

ArchtopDave · November 2022

I've been mulling over the question of dividend income a bit recently in reference to not needing the income in order to live, and don't find the situation clearcut. I agree that high income funds certainly don't provide good growth - my rough rule of thumb is that you usually lose out on capital return significantly once the dividend return is above around 3%. The unanswerable question, without sitting down and adding up total return over a number of years, is "is some income of value?" in relation to providing you with the ability to up the investments of your choosing when you want to do it ( I'm particularly referencing ISA investment where both capital and income are free of tax).

RandallFlagg · November 2022

ArchtopDave said:

I've been mulling over the question of dividend income a bit recently in reference to not needing the income in order to live, and don't find the situation clearcut. I agree that high income funds certainly don't provide good growth - my rough rule of thumb is that you usually lose out on capital return significantly once the dividend return is above around 3%. The unanswerable question, without sitting down and adding up total return over a number of years, is "is some income of value?" in relation to providing you with the ability to up the investments of your choosing when you want to do it ( I'm particularly referencing ISA investment where both capital and income are free of tax).

This may help your exploration of the relevance or otherwise of dividends:

@ToneControl isn't a fan of this chap but I think he makes some good data driven points

ArchtopDave · November 2022

This video isn't really relevant for what I'm thinking about, and it doesn't attempt to cover what might be the long term results, in a tax free (ISA) environment, between choosing a portfolio containing only accumulation funds against a portfolio with dividend income which is reinvested. I accept that attempting to make such an assessment is just about impossible to do as there are going to be so many variables in relation to the reinvestment scenario.
His argument against the idea that good dividend companies must be good companies to invest in is quite correct (I certainly go along with the Warren Buffet opinion he references), and I have no interest in pursuing high dividend returns. However, he does not argue that you should avoid dividends entirely, and he does not talk about the reinvestment of dividend income, which I would hope you agree can be one of the factors that significantly increases the capital value of a portfolio in the long term.

RandallFlagg · November 2022

ArchtopDave said:

This video isn't really relevant for what I'm thinking about, and it doesn't attempt to cover what might be the long term results, in a tax free (ISA) environment, between choosing a portfolio containing only accumulation funds against a portfolio with dividend income which is reinvested. I accept that attempting to make such an assessment is just about impossible to do as there are going to be so many variables in relation to the reinvestment scenario.
His argument against the idea that good dividend companies must be good companies to invest in is quite correct (I certainly go along with the Warren Buffet opinion he references), and I have no interest in pursuing high dividend returns. However, he does not argue that you should avoid dividends entirely, and he does not talk about the reinvestment of dividend income, which I would hope you agree can be one of the factors that significantly increases the capital value of a portfolio in the long term.

Agreed, reinvested dividend income is a huge factor in the compounding gains made over time. 84% of the S&P500's gains between 1960-2021 were sown to the reinvested dividends. It's chasing high dividend stocks for the increased dividend that doesn't;t make sense.

In your dilemma, isn't an auto accumulation fund vs a manual reinvestment of dividends from an income fund going to have pretty much the same result or as near as damn it in tax free environment? What would be the remaining variables once taxes are removed? Timing of the re-investment and internal costs within the fund? I'm not sure I understand the real difference.

My wife's SIPP holds VUSA ETF which is income only so the dividends have to be manually invested each quarter but need to be rounded down to the ETF unit price and any balance left as cash until next time, so not as efficient as an acc fund.

viz · November 2022

If you don’t want dividends, you can just spend them on more shares in that company.

Some people say dividends give you more flexibility to invest in something else, but you could have sold some shares to do that. So yep they’re entirely irrelevant.

The only thing I’d mention is that companies that can’t think of anything better to do with their profits but pay shareholders maybe aren’t the most exciting propositions.

goldtop · December 2022

Meanwhile: TSLA shares drop 73% YTD:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/12/27/tesla-stock-crash-worsens-losses-top-895-billion-as-rival-carmaker-warns-of-challenging-weeks-ahead/

ToneControl · December 2022

goldtop said:

Meanwhile: TSLA shares drop 73% YTD:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/12/27/tesla-stock-crash-worsens-losses-top-895-billion-as-rival-carmaker-warns-of-challenging-weeks-ahead/

I did say they were stupidly over-valued

RandallFlagg · December 2022

Tesla's stock price is still higher than when you first called to sell in July 2020. The time to sell was Nov 5th 2021...

Hindsight and magic crystal balls are a wonderful thing.

Never mind the stock price yesterday or today, I'm more interested in what the long term future for Tesla is, what do the company financials and projections look like?

Do you reckon they will be still around in 10-15 years or will they become the Blackberry of the EV world?

Will we actually have the conviction to carry on transitioning from ICE cars or will we row back as we have with the use of coal to produce electricity?

goldtop · December 2022

^ As soon as Musk is gone from Tesla, the fanboi-ponzi scheme stops, and the only people buying will be those who buy/hold/sell on merit. So ... (shrug)

ToneControl · December 2022

RandallFlagg said:

Tesla's stock price is still higher than when you first called to sell in July 2020. The time to sell was Nov 5th 2021...

Hindsight and magic crystal balls are a wonderful thing.

Never mind the stock price yesterday or today, I'm more interested in what the long term future for Tesla is, what do the company financials and projections look like?

Do you reckon they will be still around in 10-15 years or will they become the Blackberry of the EV world?

I just said it was over-valued
the stock price was way in excess of any likely future profits
that doesn't mean that it was too late to get a bit of ponzi-scheme tulip-bulb action and make a profit

RandallFlagg · December 2022

goldtop said:

^ As soon as Musk is gone from Tesla, the fanboi-ponzi scheme stops, and the only people buying will be those who buy/hold/sell on merit. So ... (shrug)

I agree Tesla stock has been subject to cult hype with the price driven up by mania but unlike FTX, Tesla do actually make a product and have invested in actual global production facilities so I think the Ponzi scheme reference is a little disingenuous

euan · December 2022

What about selling a product called Full Self Driving, that isn’t in any way capable of fully self driving?

RandallFlagg · December 2022

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

ToneControl · December 2022

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued

CavemanGrogg · December 2022

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued

I pick individual stocks, though since the Lego as an investment thread have also invested into an index fund, and I'm up a hair under 15% for my portfolio minus the fund, which I'm tracking separately as I'm comparing it to Lego and various forms of gold - physical coin bullion, physical bars, ETF, and what's known as ''digital gold'', and that fund is down less than 4% - in fact it's closer to 3% down.

And I am a dividend investor, as in I invest for dividends, not just for the potential for the stock value to increase, but also how much they pay out in dividends.

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

I have to disagree with this based off of my own portfolio, granted I'm not a ''activist investor'' nor an ''ethical investor'', so I have invested in a lot of sins, and I pick stocks, I've taken a punt on a index fund, purely to get real world numbers for comparing Lego to an index fund, and gold, and as I mention above, my portfolio - without the index fund, is up close to 15%, that's inflation beating.

ToneControl · December 2022

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

CavemanGrogg · December 2022

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

ToneControl · December 2022

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

CavemanGrogg · December 2022

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV? It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up.

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment. Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities. Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported.

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

ToneControl · December 2022

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV? It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up.

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment. Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities. Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported.

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

you may find this interesting
it's been out for a year or so now

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/hydrogen

basically can handle longer and harder usage cycles than EV

RaymondLin · December 2022

I first realised cold + battery = doom about 7 years ago when I went to Sweden in the middle of winter and noticed my iPhone battery loses about half of it's capacity. It literally goes from normal to 50% in regular time frame, then suddenly drops to 10% and then dies in another 2 mins.

And that is with the phone in my jeans pocket with some body heat transfer. So I imagine a EV with say 300 miles range to have maximum 50% of that in the depth of winter when it's below 0c.

That is just not going to work since the behaviour of the battery too would be out of character, it hits a wall and plummets, rather than it's normal (close to) linear curve in use so you might find youself in trouble all of the sudden thinking you have like 50% left when it would stops working.

CavemanGrogg · December 2022

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV? It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up.

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment. Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities. Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported.

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

you may find this interesting
it's been out for a year or so now

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/hydrogen

basically can handle longer and harder usage cycles than EV

Hydrogen is what I'm betting on - I believe there's a long haul test flight using hydrogen happening very soon, if not lpg, which is already in use and current ICE can be converted to very easily. I believe the king has a hydrogen powered car, he was promoting a company that's doing R&D and building them, not so long before the queen's death, can't remember the company's name, but it's British, and the car he was filmed in front of and taking for a spin was a dark blue colour.

victorludorum · December 2022

Don't you need electricity to produce hydrogen?

stickyfiddle · December 2022

I'm not convinced by hydrogen for passenger cars. To get green hydrogen (the only type that matters), you need clean energy and pure water. Right now that generally means solar power and desalinated water. While solar PV has got exponentially cheaper over the last decade, those savings are already rolled up into the current costs of hydrogen, and when you account for that, plus the cost & weight of the compression tanks etc you need to carry in your car the economics don't currently add up, and have no obvious path to get 50-75% cheaper. Advancements in battery tech are more likely and should have a greater impact.

Where hydrogen is likely to be really good is in shipping (in the form of ammonia) and aviation (by via man-made hydrocarbons).

And as for heaters on batteries, some Teslas have them..!

Image: https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2022/06/23/USAT/2fc5f067-16b7-477f-8b1c-b16e2b1e72b9-MicrosoftTeams-image_13.png

goldtop · December 2022

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

CavemanGrogg said:

ToneControl said:

just for fun, not intended as pertinent to this debate

https://metro.co.uk/video/huge-line-teslas-queue-electric-charging-point-south-mimms-services-2844577/

I saw that, we had temps as low as -18.3 degrees C here last week, the few people in the village who have EVs couldn't charge them full stop it was that cold for the batteries for those days

Watch: Sprawling queues of Teslas await charging outside Tebay services in Penrith | Metro Video

I hadn't realised the cold would cause this much trouble
Why don't they have heaters on the battery packs?

What would you power the heater with on an EV? It was seriously impressive, and painfully cold, when I was told about it - a couple who live close to me have a Tesla and couldn't charge it due to the cold, I didn't believe it, so ran an extension cable out the kitchen window, and tried to charge my iPad mini in the garden, and a message came up on the screen telling me that charging would resume once the battery had warmed up.

They lose over 50% of their range in the cold, and that's before you put any heating on, which again reduces the range as that takes power that would normally power the engine, to power the heater instead, and heaters in EVs are nowhere near as ''efficient'' as they are on ICE vehicles, which can and do make use of the heat generated by an ICE for heating.

I think EVs are going to turn out to be a far far bigger scandal than the green diesel cars and emissions fixing scandals, there is just simply no way that they can be less harmful for the environment. Multi level car parks are currently panicking, and being reinforced to handle all the extra weight of EVs compared to ICE vehicles, that's a lot of tyre wear compared to the same size ICE vehicle, and that's before you look at the materials needed to make them, and how they're mined - I don't mean via child labour and slavery but the actual mining process for cobalt, lithium and other materials needed to make batteries and the quantities. Or how the electricity to charge them is generated, stored and transported.

This is why I haven't invested in Tesla - besides that it doesn't pay dividends, I don't just think it's hugely over valued, but that EVs are also a fad technology, especially given battery limitations, and the strain so many EVs would put on infrastructure.

There's soo much FUD and lies in there it's hard to know where to start. Maybe check Bjorn Nyland's Youtube channel for the actual truth about running an EV in the cold (Norway).

My humble EV has a battery warming system for (very) cold weather (still not been needed) and has a range of about 160 miles in the cold vs 200 miles in Summer.

RandallFlagg · December 2022

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

@ToneControl what's your thoughts on the last year and for 2023 with regards your investment journey?

As I look back and consider where to direct new money for 2023, on reflection, It's been a very challenging year for investors, with the one in a hundred year bonds market crash, decimating many "safe" high bond content funds, with those bonds elements unlikely to recover for 5-10 years or so.

REITs have been hard hit, stocks are down globally with only really the FTSE 100 barely keeping its chin just above the water line, due to the surge in the energy stocks it holds. Commodities have held up well. UK investors in US funds protected from the full effect of the downside by the fall in the pound, but still down. UK high dividend stocks have probably paid out well though.

Should have been some opportunities for traders amongth the carnage I would have thought?

I think 2023 may be equally choppy, I don't think this bear market is anywhere near over yet, there needs to be blood on the streets, despair and complete capitulation first...so, if that is to come, then I will be buying stock fund units at even lower prices.

"my mate" still makes loads of money going long and more frequently short on the S+P500.
I have a day job, so am avoiding that at present, since it needs attention through the trading hours

On my shares in my SIPP I was down about 5% then up about 1%, my mate said sell, and I didn't so now about 5% down again, so not a bad place for me really. We're basically looking for undervalued stocks with manageable debts in the light of interest rate hikes. Looking for firms with few short term debts,
I've invested quite a bit in low LTV REITs that are undervalued

Sounds like you are weathering the storm OK.

goldtop · December 2022

From Norway, actual facts: https://www.naf.no/elbil/aktuelt/elbiltest/ev-winter-range-test-2020/

TLDR - on average, Winter range (Norwegian conditions) is 82% of Summer range. Can be as high as 90% or as low as 70%.

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