Sell Tesla?

ToneControl · July 2020

Top-rated analyst 18 years in a row says sell:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sell-tesla-stock-analyst-says-its-valuation-is-mind-boggling-51595943108

He left his price target unchanged at $900 a share

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/bernstein-downgrades-tesla-to-underperform.html

Bernstein downgrades Tesla, calls valuation ‘mind-boggling’ and ‘unprecedented’ since tech bubble

RandallFlagg · July 2020

Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet.

stickyfiddle · July 2020

It feels hugely overpriced when the cars have plenty of issues with late delivery and bad QC. SpaceX is run by different people, so while I appreciate Musk's genius (despite seeming like a pretty terrible human being) I don't see Tesla and SpaceX as being that closely linked on the fundamental stuff.

We've just made a move partially away from tech as we've had frankly silly growth in the last quarter and want to consolidate a little.

Fuengi · July 2020

On one hand I really like Elon Musk. On the other he seems to me like he is constantly diverting attention away from the things he's failing to deliver.

RandallFlagg · July 2020

Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya remains heavily invested in Tesla and sees a future beyond EVs. Toni Sacconaghi is an analyst, not sure how much skin he has in the game, beyond trying to make headlines.

Question is though, will Elon Musk venture into widespread community power distribution, challenging the centralised generation/distribution model via Tesla or a new start-up company?

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-chamath-palihapitiya

The Tesla stock bubble is fascinating and it will be interesting to see if the bubble bursts catastrophically or keeps growing.

Meanwhile Elon Musk challenges Johnny Depp to a cage fight....!!

Steffo · July 2020

I have cashed in. Own one of their cars and I think they will grow but the valuation is bonkers.

Danny1969 · July 2020

Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to 25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket. An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.

RaymondLin · July 2020

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

BBBlues · July 2020

Tesla is currently a growth stock, it’s current price is based on pure speculation... fanned by the flames of being a trendy stock, and high levels of fomo.

Short term - likely to be included in the S&P500, so yes trackers will need to buy up... however remember some will just synthesise with derivatives.

Long term business for Tesla will be in their car batteries, probably providing for other leading car manufactures who already have huge production lines and market know how.

ToneControl · July 2020

RandallFlagg said:

Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet.

Often more complicated than that, the market will have already anticpated the S+P listing for many entrants, and many will take profits so the price goes down, not up.

Similarly, a positive annual report often causes the share price to fall, and a negative one for it to rise, depending on what the market had already priced in

Those short sellers are not inexperienced, do you want to bet your life savings against them?

ToneControl · July 2020

Danny1969 said:

Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to 25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket. An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.

and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?

ToneControl · July 2020

BBBlues said:

Tesla is currently a growth stock, it’s current price is based on pure speculation... fanned by the flames of being a trendy stock, and high levels of fomo.

Short term - likely to be included in the S&P500, so yes trackers will need to buy up... however remember some will just synthesise with derivatives.

Long term business for Tesla will be in their car batteries, probably providing for other leading car manufactures who already have huge production lines and market know how.

Agreed, many ETFs are significantly synthetic

ToneControl · July 2020

Daimler (Mercedes) Tangible Book Value €45,366,000, market cap =$50b, ratio = 1.06
Tesla Tangible Book Value $6,081,000, market cap = $273b, ratio = 0.02

so tangible value of Tesla is priced 50 times higher than Mercedes.

I think companies like Mercedes will survive, wherever they get batteries from. Tesla is way behind with all its plans, and is poor at manufacturing cars

RandallFlagg · July 2020

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

RandallFlagg · July 2020

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

Not yet. If Tesla is accepted into S&P500 the index tracker funds will have to pile in and the price will go up further.

Elon Musk is an enigma. Who thought Space X could really turn a commercial profit on the extremely high stakes business of space flight?...but they have.

tying yourself to the train track with a short sell while the Tesla express is thundering towards you isn't a good bet....not yet.

Often more complicated than that, the market will have already anticpated the S+P listing for many entrants, and many will take profits so the price goes down, not up.

Similarly, a positive annual report often causes the share price to fall, and a negative one for it to rise, depending on what the market had already priced in

Those short sellers are not inexperienced, do you want to bet your life savings against them?

No, I wouldn't, I'm happy to have a small stake in Tesla as part of a diversified fund but I wouldn't commit a large amount to that one stock either to buy or short sell, I don't invest in any single stocks. If I had some Tesla stock I would be looking to sell immediately after they join S&P500 to lock in the profits as I'm not experienced enough to try and fine tune the timing any better but looking at the graph this year it's obvious that a near vertical ascent is not sustainable and surely will not last much longer. Maybe it's already peaked but I think there may just be a little more to go...or is the venture capitalist fella right and we could see $4K a share?

Short selling isn't for me and even though Tesla looks such a likely candidate for a short sell it's a risky game to play with retirement funds. I would only play with short selling and short term trading with money I could afford to lose completely, a few £K pocket money, no more.

Many of the short sellers have may have lost a lot of money already by trying to short sell earlier in the year. There was a lot of noise that Tesla was overpriced in February but the stock has rocketed even further. The bubble will burst but trying to calculate when is a risky business and you need a lot of cash reserves and nerves of steel to hold your position as the price goes up without caving in and going bust.

The tech fund I invest in is Polar Capital Global Technology and as far as I'm aware they have no Tesla stock in their portfolio, their investment model appears to be to let the initial startup bubble burst then pick up tech stock as companies are about to transition and mature. Baillie Gifford hold 7% of their American fund in Tesla, which I am also invested in, not heavily yet but I plan to add more money over the long term regardless of their current position with Tesla.

stickyfiddle · July 2020

RandallFlagg said:

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

Yes. But they also have the understanding of how to make cars. There's little doubt that Tesla have done the electric bit very well (including the charging infrastructure, at least in the US), but building the rest of the car isn't straightforward, and that's where they have struggled. I don't expect that every traditional car company will get the transition to electric right and thrive, but you'd be mad to assume none of them will

RandallFlagg · July 2020

stickyfiddle said:

RandallFlagg said:

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

Yes. But they also have the understanding of how to make cars. There's little doubt that Tesla have done the electric bit very well (including the charging infrastructure, at least in the US), but building the rest of the car isn't straightforward, and that's where they have struggled. I don't expect that every traditional car company will get the transition to electric right and thrive, but you'd be mad to assume none of them will

I agree, that makes sense, my bet would be on Citroen to come up with a range of EV's that has all the Tesla flash but is cheap and popular enough for the chav masses to buy, certainly across Europe.

Although Apple have managed to get the masses to buy a high price luxury phone, the world over, I wouldn't be betting on Tesla to do the same...but you never know. Only just a few years ago I would have laughed at the prospect of space rocket modules being able to fall back to earth at supersonic speeds, be slowed down and then guided to land simultaneously on launch pads so they could be reused.

Long range EV or hydrogen haulage trucks will be the next real game changer to reduce road traffic emissions.

BBBlues · July 2020

A £1k phone is a bit different to a £100k EV. I'm not sure I buy the behavioural consumer link by the masses seeming as one is affordable by most, and the other by few.

The bodywork on Tesla cars has hundreds of parts compared to just dozens in other vehicles. People have been waiting over a year to get theirs fixed after a crash, the backlog is insane. Insurance therefore is crazy expensive (they don't want open claims that long), if you can find insurance now at all. Courtesy cars provided by the insurer only given for 3 months or so is leaving owners having to purchase another car whilst their ££ car is sat on the drive.

No dealerships etc.

If anything their model seems anti-expansion.

Danny1969 · July 2020

ToneControl said:

Danny1969 said:

Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to 25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket. An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.

and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?

No but the gigafactory has more manufacturing capability than every other factory in the world combined ... plus the next biggest player Panasonic is an investor in the Gigafactory. The scale of the place is just unprecedented.

I know f#ck all about shares mind, but in the electronics industry battery technology lags way behind everything else ... so I can see the potential for a new battery made on that scale making a lot of money.

ToneControl · July 2020

RandallFlagg said:

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing

ToneControl · July 2020

Danny1969 said:

ToneControl said:

Danny1969 said:

Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to 25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket. An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.

and no other manufacturer knows how to build reliable cars more efficiently?

The share price is already beyond the price where any dividend return can realistically be expected, do Tesla own the patents for all battery technology?

No but the gigafactory has more manufacturing capability than every other factory in the world combined ... plus the next biggest player Panasonic is an investor in the Gigafactory. The scale of the place is just unprecedented.

I know f#ck all about shares mind, but in the electronics industry battery technology lags way behind everything else ... so I can see the potential for a new battery made on that scale making a lot of money.

have you checked that info?
I just did a quick search,
this one says tesla is not the biggest EV battery maker:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-factbox/factbox-the-worlds-biggest-electric-vehicle-battery-makers-idUSKBN1Y02JG#:~:text=China's%20Contemporary%20Amperex%20Technology%20(CATL,and%20Honda%20Motor%20Co%20(7267.

(Reuters) - Asian companies dominate the market for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and they are expanding their production capacity in Europe, China and the United States in a fight to win lucrative contracts from global automakers.
Some carmakers worry, however, there won’t be enough batteries for all the EVs they plan to launch in the coming years and a bitter row between South Korea’s SK Innovation and LG Chem risks exacerbating the potential shortfall.

the Tesla site says the gigafactory is intended to supply all of Tesla's batteries

Who is supplying the other car makers who currently have 99.2% market share in making and selling cars?

crunchman · July 2020

Danny1969 said:

Although Graphene has seemed like vapourware for a good few years now they are now at the stage where they can produce it at a fraction of the original cost and it reasonably large quantities. There's already powerbanks available to buy which use graphene along with lithium. Now the extended capacity of the battery with a content of graphene isn't anything to get excited by, maybe 15 to 25% more for a given size but the extremely low resistance super conductor quality of graphene can reduce charge time without overheating by 2 thirds. 20 mins for a full charge on a power bank or phone battery rather than over an hour.
Tesla are in a better position than anyway to exploit the properties of graphene into battery production and I think when they do their share price will rocket. An electric car battery cell that can be charged in 20 minutes without excess heat or damage will be the end of range anxiety and electric cars sales will rocket.

That's all very well, but the charging infrastructure won't support that. To charge a 100kWh battery in 20 minutes would need around 6500A at UK mains voltage. You will be swapping the excess heat in the battery to excess heat in the mains cables. Higher voltages would decrease the current, but introduce other problems. It's highly unlikely that we are ever going get to the point where you can safely charge a car battery with decent range in a reasonable time

Hydrogen is the future. Battery power might work in the UK but the distances here are relatively short. For the kind of distances in a lot of other countries, it's a non starter - especially for freight.

Hydrogen would solve a lot of other problems. There are massive problems with the supply of lithium and cobalt for batteries.

Hydrogen also solves the problem of how to store intermittent energy from renewables like solar and wind. If we have big banks of battery on the electricity network, it will be expensive as they will need to be replaced on a regular basis. Batteries have a finite life span. If you get three years out of a phone battery, you are doing very well. The ones they use on the mains will probably have better lifespan that that, but it will still be a huge issue. It will be very expensive with the lithium and cobalt supply issue

Hydrogen would also mean that you wouldn't need to spend vast amounts of money on installing millions of car charging points, and even more on top upgrading the mains network to cope with the high currents.

Batteries might be part of the mix, but hydrogen is going to be the backbone of transport - especially as it will work in countries without electricity infrastructure.

For that reason, it looks to me that Tesla is grossly overvalued.

RaymondLin · July 2020

If I were to get an electric car, I would get the Honda 1 (or is it E1?), I mean battery life is going to be short on an electric car anyway so it will be purely for commuting meaning small car is fine. Honda fits the bill perfectly and Honda knows how to make cars. Plus it looks amazing.

RandallFlagg · July 2020

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing

I didn't say that Teslas lack of experience was an advantage. Their advantage is that they do not have the legacy debts that the traditional vehicle manufacturers have or vast amounts of capital tied up in traditional manufacturing plants and people.

Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion
Ford’s long term debt = US$154 billion
GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( + a US$14 billion unpaid bailout loan)
Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion

Tesla's debt is US$13 billion*

*these figure are from 2019

That advantage may count for nothing if they cannot get mass manufacturing on a global scale sorted.

Elon Musk has already stated that Tesla's energy business ambitions will see that side of the business be bigger than it's car business. That's the bet the venture capitalist's are waging and that is what may keep the share price up. The energy business is old and stale and ripe for a challenging disruptor.

Plus they have their AI technology chip reported to be 4 years ahead of all competition by Ark Investments.

So, to answer you opening question:

Sell Tesla?

Yes - probably now or soon if you hold stock purchased at June 2020 or earlier prices, to lock in a handsome profit. Yes the stock may go on to higher prices but a profit is guaranteed today.

No - if you plan to fund a short sell now, especially with retirement funds. You could end up paying interest and lose out if the price doesn't come down in a reasonable time frame.

RandallFlagg · July 2020

Cathie Wood of Ark Investments calls Tesla stock to break out and go to $7K a share in February when it was $700. Tesla stock is now trading at $1.4K.

ToneControl · July 2020

RandallFlagg said:

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

RaymondLin said:

I think once other manufacturers start releasing more electric cars in their line up Tesla's dominance in the electric car will diminish and with it their stock prices.

The advantage Tesla has is that they are not a traditional petrol/diesel car manufacturer. All the other manufacturers have large legacy product lines, manufacturing plants and staff to transition to EVs.

Where Tesla could unfold is in the scaling up of reliable high quality production. The transition from boutique to household staple will be challenging, but Apple did it with a luxury device.

how is not being experienced in manufacturing cars an advantage?

I saw loads of stuff years back explaining how Tesla design for manufacturing was poor, and they have had endless delays in setting up production lines, even having to manually build some cars, output has been catastrophically below plans at many times

i.e. they already have trouble scaling up

Apple were present at the start of a new market, and grew in size as the market grew.
Tesla is 120 years late for car manufacturing

I didn't say that Teslas lack of experience was an advantage. Their advantage is that they do not have the legacy debts that the traditional vehicle manufacturers have or vast amounts of capital tied up in traditional manufacturing plants and people.

Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion
Ford’s long term debt = US$154 billion
GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( + a US$14 billion unpaid bailout loan)
Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion
Tesla's debt is US$13 billion*

*these figure are from 2019

That advantage may count for nothing if they cannot get mass manufacturing on a global scale sorted.

Elon Musk has already stated that Tesla's energy business ambitions will see that side of the business be bigger than it's car business. That's the bet the venture capitalist's are waging and that is what may keep the share price up. The energy business is old and stale and ripe for a challenging disruptor.

Plus they have their AI technology chip reported to be 4 years ahead of all competition by Ark Investments.

So, to answer you opening question:

Sell Tesla?

Yes - probably now or soon if you hold stock purchased at June 2020 or earlier prices, to lock in a handsome profit. Yes the stock may go on to higher prices but a profit is guaranteed today.

No - if you plan to fund a short sell now, especially with retirement funds. You could end up paying interest and lose out if the price doesn't come down in a reasonable time frame.

you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

not such a rosy picture eh?

RandallFlagg · July 2020

ToneControl said:

you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

not such a rosy picture eh?

I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?

ToneControl · July 2020

RandallFlagg said:

ToneControl said:

you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

not such a rosy picture eh?

I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?

I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set off a domino effect with the other bubbles

dafuzz · July 2020

Isn't Musk's prediction of Level 5 (completely self-driving basically) by the end of the year a factor? I know very little of stocks etc but I would've thought licensing that tech would be a goldmine

Personally I don't see it happening btw

ToneControl · July 2020

To expland on my summary:

Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets, total = +€196b
Market cap = €43b

Book Value Per Share (mrq)

€53.67

share price = €39.88

so you're buying €54 worth of Mercedes for €40

Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets total = +$7b
Market cap = $274b

PE Ratio (TTM)

764.23

Book Value Per Share (mrq)

$52.98

share price = $1500

so you're buying $53 worth of Tesla for $1500

I suppose my motivation is that I want normal market forces to resume, so I am pointing out how big this bubble is

BBBlues · July 2020

ToneControl said:

RandallFlagg said:

ToneControl said:

you need to look at assets on balance sheets as well as liabilties

Daimler has €106m in liabilities, but €302m in assets

Tesla has $27b liabilities, and $34b assets

not such a rosy picture eh?

I don't need to look at anything, I just find the Tesla bubble interesting. I'm not the one asking the question. Are you holding Tesla stock? Looking to buy Tesla stock? are you considering a short sell?

I'm doing neither, you asked the question. Why?

I don't own any, we were discussing it in the general thread. It is interesting, but not solely for academic reasons
The theory is that if the bubble bursts for any of Tesla, Apple, Facebook, google, it could set of a domino effect with the other bubbles

Its an interesting topic, and acts as stand out test case in terms of how the US markets and investors behave.

The big 5 tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) are driving the S&P500. Did you know that YTD those 5 have returned +35%, and the other 495 have delivered -5%... the weighted avg nets off to +2%.

The US is an asset bubble, where many people's wealth is entirely dependent on over inflated asset prices which have very little relationship with actual earnings of stock. The Fed can only pump in so much cash to prop it up... once the market becomes unresponsive and immune to QE it will stall and a huge correction will occur. Might be a month, might be 5-10 years... but it will happen.

The shift to conserving price rather than growth has already begun, just look at current gold and raw material prices.

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Sell Tesla?

Bernstein downgrades Tesla, calls valuation ‘mind-boggling’ and ‘unprecedented’ since tech bubble

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