Will valve prices ever come back down??

VeggieShark · September 2023

Just got a used peavey classic 30 for a bargain price in excellent condition.Well pleased with it, but i should be as I've owned a 20,30 and 50 previously.

The previous owner had tthe same valves in the 2yrs he owned it and I get the impression he bought it used so the valves are probably an unknown time older than that, anyway for now they sound good. Used it for 1 rehearsal and last Saturday's gig in place of my JVM410C as the venue had 3 flights of stairs to go up n down..I got the 1x12 amp for rehearsals and venues like this...anyway on the valve front just priced up a quad of EL84's and that's £85 cheapest I can find (JJ's) add another £40 or thereabouts for the preamp valves aand that's £125 to revalve it...ouch! I'd like to think this Ukraine thing isn't going to remain a reason or excuse to keep valves prices high..but I suspect sellers will try and maintain their new high-price?

mrkb · September 2023

Old technology, declining user base and limited suppliers means prices will stay high, just look at it like keeping a vintage car going.

Nerine · September 2023

The guy I take my amps to to be fettled and looked at mentioned recently that prices have come down a bit, but I don't really see them going back to where they were pre price hike.

It's another of the long list of reasons why I am happy moving to solid state power with guitar cabs and a modelling front end. Valve amps are just feeling more and more archaic to me, as much as I love them. Especially since venues, audiences etc seem to be more sensitive about volume and space/logistics etc nowadays.

I kinda feel that the time is now about right to gradually make the switch over. I can't really see it going any other way forwards. I love valve amps, but I honestly feel like I'm missing nothing with a Fractal rig with decent power and monitoring etc.

willo · September 2023

Nerine said:

The guy I take my amps to to be fettled and looked at mentioned recently that prices have come down a bit, but I don't really see them going back to where they were pre price hike.

It's another of the long list of reasons why I am happy moving to solid state power with guitar cabs and a modelling front end. Valve amps are just feeling more and more archaic to me, as much as I love them. Especially since venues, audiences etc seem to be more sensitive about volume and space/logistics etc nowadays.

I kinda feel that the time is now about right to gradually make the switch over. I can't really see it going any other way forwards. I love valve amps, but I honestly feel like I'm missing nothing with a Fractal rig with decent power and monitoring etc.

Yeah, this was why I eventually settled back on modelling after umming and ahhing. It is definitely where the future will be. Valve amps in the future will be considered a bit like vintage sports cars - special and romantic, yet unreliable and expensive to maintain.

skay · September 2023

I imagine people were having this same conversation in the 80’s with transistor amps and rack effects, then again with digital amps in the 90’s/00’s, but here we are 40 years later…

I don’t think valve amps will die out anytime soon as look at how popular the Marshall Studio range has been for example, and there’s room for both digital and valve in the world, so keep enjoying what you enjoy!

ICBM · September 2023

Valves aren't expensive now either in historical terms or in real terms compared to everything else that's going up at an alarming rate, and they're unlikely to ever get any cheaper.

Remember that you don't need to completely re-valve an amp - it's best to change power valves in sets, and they do wear out relatively fast (partly because modern ones are fairly poor quality and amp designers often insist on running them too hot, particularly EL84s) but preamp valves only need replacing one at a time if they fail.

viz · September 2023

I dunno, I’ve got amps that I’ve been playing consistently loudly and often for years and years now - 30 years at least, and I’ve never had to change any valves on any of them. I mean, I know the more amps you have the more the load is shared but still, I’ve never found them to be a nuisance or expensive. I have them quieter on stage than at home because I mic them, maybe that helps.

Modulus_Amps · September 2023

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

idiotwindow · September 2023

Modulus_Amps said:

the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

Well, if the demand falls to the level of cottage industry, the cost of a valve (assuming it is even possible to make them on that scale) would skyrocket (at least once the stock of NOS valves are depleted). Until then, a fall in demand will more likely lead to lower prices, just like in any other commodity market.

ICBM · September 2023

Modulus_Amps said:

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

It slightly surprises me that cheap valve amps are even being manufactured now. I don’t think higher-end ones will die out completely, but I can’t see a long-term market for cheap ones, especially as the manufacturing techniques necessary to keep the prices down make them inherently harder to repair and thus more disposable, in general.

roberty · September 2023

Modulus_Amps said:

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

Would lower demand push prices up or bring them down? If you can't satisfy demand you lower demand by raising prices

Cirrus · September 2023

roberty said:

Modulus_Amps said:

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

Would lower demand push prices up or bring them down? If you can't satisfy demand you lower demand by raising prices

Lower demand makes prices go down, then factories close down and companies go out of business. Then smaller companies come along to service a small, passionate market with high costs reflecting the lack of economy of scale & the perceived value of the product to the buyers while the rest of the world moves on.

Modulus_Amps · September 2023

roberty said:

Modulus_Amps said:

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

Would lower demand push prices up or bring them down? If you can't satisfy demand you lower demand by raising prices

Pretty Much what Cirrus said above.

Reduced demand is not due to the price of the valves, it is due to the market moving to digital amps. so lowering the price of valves alone will not likely re-boot the valve amp industry and not increase demand sustainably.
If factories want to stay open they have to cover the costs of running those factories, A reduced demand means the valve prices have to stay high otherwise those factories will shut.

Glad to be wrong on this BTW, you might just find the market ends up flooded with cheap Chinese made amps again.

ROOG · September 2023

What is the main market for quality valves? I'm guessing it isn't guitar amps.

roberty · September 2023

Modulus_Amps said:

roberty said:

Modulus_Amps said:

Ukraine war aside, I think as digital amps continue to grow and are so good, the demand for cheap low end valve amps will dwindle and then as demand is reduced the prices will have to go up or stay up.

Would lower demand push prices up or bring them down? If you can't satisfy demand you lower demand by raising prices

Pretty Much what Cirrus said above.

Reduced demand is not due to the price of the valves, it is due to the market moving to digital amps. so lowering the price of valves alone will not likely re-boot the valve amp industry and not increase demand sustainably.
If factories want to stay open they have to cover the costs of running those factories, A reduced demand means the valve prices have to stay high otherwise those factories will shut.

Glad to be wrong on this BTW, you might just find the market ends up flooded with cheap Chinese made amps again.

There has to be a balance I guess

I can't imagine it going away completely. In the context of studio equipment and pro audio it's still very reasonably priced

ICBM · September 2023

ROOG said:

What is the main market for quality valves? I'm guessing it isn't guitar amps.

Hi-fi. I'm not sure if it's a bigger or smaller market - I've heard that it's bigger, but I find it slightly hard to believe because valve hi-fi is even more of a niche market than electric guitar playing. Although it's possible that these are generally well-off customers who routinely replace valves more often than we do.

These are really the only uses for audio-type valves now. The only other uses for valves at all - for completely different types not even remotely similar to the ones we use - are things like high-power radio transmitters.

roberty · September 2023

There are valve mics and valve studio outboard but I'd say this is a lot more niche than guitar amps

hollywoodrox · September 2023

I thought military would be a big valve user & commercial radio? Are valves less prone to the effects of EMP caused by devices or nuclear explosions

ICBM · September 2023

hollywoodrox said:

Are valves less prone to the effects of EMP caused by devices or nuclear explosions

Yes, which is why valve production for the military continued up to the 1980s when nuclear attack was a major risk - but modern solid-state can be hardened sufficiently against it. The complexity of modern military electronics is far above what could be achieved with valves.

That’s probably the main reason production continued as long as it did, at least in the West - some of the most common NOS valves are now military-spec 12AT7s, it was a standard type and they stockpiled millions of them.

springhead · September 2023

hollywoodrox said:

I thought military would be a big valve user & commercial radio? Are valves less prone to the effects of EMP caused by devices or nuclear explosions

Yes but technology has moved on. The systems used by the military, eg communications, guidance, radar etc are all far too complex now to be valve based.

elstoof · September 2023

Perhaps Lee Anderton could be convinced to invest in a new valve brand and do some impartial demos on his channel

ROOG · September 2023

ICBM said:

hollywoodrox said:

Are valves less prone to the effects of EMP caused by devices or nuclear explosions

Yes, which is why valve production for the military continued up to the 1980s when nuclear attack was a major risk - but modern solid-state can be hardened sufficiently against it. The complexity of modern military electronics is far above what could be achieved with valves.

That’s probably the main reason production continued as long as it did, at least in the West - some of the most common NOS valves are now military-spec 12AT7s, it was a standard type and they stockpiled millions of them.

I understood that the military 'market' was a reason for the continued requirement for valves especially in legacy gear but I would agree with the sentiment that valve gear must surely be very out of place in most military applications by now.

I recall an article published in the early 80's that one particular manufacturer of 'hi-end' HiFi amps announced that their entire production run was based on a crate of military valves they had acquired. sounds like a very niche line of business to me!

I do sometimes wonder how the NOS valve business is fairing. I suppose the valve industry had quite a modest run commercially speaking, say from the 1930's through to the early 60's.

impmann · September 2023

In short, to answer the OP's question: NO.

There are four factories in the world right now making valves in any volume: Sovtek (out of bounds due to that mad bugger Putin), JJ (sporadic output is the best way of summing them up - great valves, though), PS Vane (*really* changeable quality) and Shuguang (literally only just re-opened, and minus all their original technical staff so QC remains to be seen). These factories produce valves with other branding on them depending on the market. Often they go to third parties who then select and grade them - and apply their own branding. But the valves themselves are made in these four factories - one of which is out of bounds, one of which is great but there are supply chain issues, one of which is "OK* occasionally and the other is only just restarting and there are question marks over how good they may be (unproven, in short).

You can find cheap valves if you dig... and they are cheap for reasons. Good KT-88s are eye-wateringly expensive right now. But realistically, pre-amp valves aren't that dear really - and they don't need changing *that* often really. EL34s/6L6 and their variants have crept up a little recently... but still not hideous unless you are revalving a Sound City 120. EL84s... again crept up, and can be a little more problematic in older amps.

But the price isn't going down any time soon.

Fingers657 · September 2023

I thought tube prices were going to go sky high after the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine but was quite surprised how many sellers didn’t automatically jump in and start profiteering buy putting there prices up.
I have a lot of valve heads and combos so automatically did a panic buy before the invasion but really needn’t have bothered.

Moe_Zambeek · September 2023

I’ve had four 6l6 amps through here recently - 3 had microphonic power tubes, the other one is very slightly microphonic but bearable, and 50% of the spare ‘premium’ replacements I bought were also microphonic (1 of a pair, granted). GT / Fender and TAD red base tubes.

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Will valve prices ever come back down??

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